Week of 13 Oct 2026
The CBN held for the third consecutive meeting. BTC broke $66k and held it. NGX industrials continued the quiet bid from last week. A calmer week for USDNGN — and our model performed better for it.
What happened this week
Third consecutive hold. The committee cited easing core inflation and the need to protect naira stability before the year-end FX demand season. USDNGN barely moved on the announcement — our policy signal was pricing a hold at 91% confidence from Tuesday. When the model is right on a binary event and the market confirms it cleanly, that is one of the higher-quality signal outcomes we can have.
The most orderly week for naira in over a month. CBN window volumes were steady, oil recovered slightly from last week's sell-off, and there were no significant parallel market dislocations. Our macro regime signal stayed in the neutral band all week, which correctly kept confidence thresholds at standard levels rather than the elevated caution we ran with last week.
BTC cleared $65.4k resistance on Tuesday with volume confirmation — our momentum signal had a decisive-long call live from Monday evening with 8/9 gates passed. The one gate that didn't pass was market-depth, which is the conservative check on whether size can be moved without slippage. The direction was correct; subscribers who sized appropriately captured the move. ETH followed within 18 hours, which is tightening from the lag we observed last week — the inter-asset correlation feature is updating in the right direction.
DANGCEM Q3 earnings came in broadly in line with expectations — no major surprise, but the stock held the volume bid from last week rather than fading. GTCO had the more interesting move: a 2.3% single-session gain on Thursday on above-average volume, which our sector flow feature flagged as a financials rotation signal. We had a decisive-long on GTCO from Wednesday close. Outcome confirmed at the 4h window.
"A week where the model read the setup correctly and the market agreed. 62% is not a number we will hit every week — but it shows the trajectory is real."
Where we were wrong
The 13 losing calls were spread across pegged-FX pairs and two EMFX shorts that reversed intraday on Thursday. The intraday reversal pattern on Thursday appears to be linked to a broad risk-on move in EM late in the US session — a signal that our current feature set doesn't capture quickly enough. We are adding a late-US-session EMFX sentiment feature to the next model update, targeting deployment in two weeks.